Statistical analysis, charts, graphs, and observations from a lifelong NBA fan.

Over the course of an 82-game NBA regular season, schedule strength works out to be roughly the same for all teams in each conference. Teams play 3 or 4 games against each conference opponent, plus 2 games against each team from the opposite conference. As a result, the only real scheduling advantage goes to the best teams, who benefit from the fact that they don't have to play themselves.


Unfortunately for the Raptors,
they can't play themselves.
On the other hand, with the season now just two weeks old, there is still a fair amount of schedule strength variation. Teams that have played the toughest schedules are probably better than their record indicates, and teams with the weakest schedules are probably worse.

For this quick survey, I calculated strength of schedule (SOS) using the same basic formula that goes into the RPI rating:

2/3 * opponents' winning percentage + 1/3 * opponents' opponents' winning percentage
Toughest Schedules (through games of 11/15/05)
Rank Team Record Opp Opp-Opp SOS
1. Milwaukee 4-2 27-13 115-109 0.621
2. Indiana 4-2 24-15 126-96 0.599
3. Boston 3-4 28-17 134-131 0.583
4. Philadelphia 5-3 28-20 155-139 0.565
5. Phoenix 3-3 24-16 100-132 0.544

Milwaukee has had by far the toughest schedule in the league to date, with all 6 opponents posting winning records in their other games. They also have a winning record of their own, thanks to the torrid shooting of Michael Redd and Mo Williams and the improbable return of T.J. Ford. Another Central Division team, Indiana, ranks #2. This is further evidence that the C.D., which also includes 6-2 Cavs and the 7-0 Pistons, will be the toughest division in the league this year.

Weakest Schedules (through games of 11/15/05)

Rank Team Record Opp Opp-Opp SOS
30. Portland 2-3 12-19 88-94 0.419
29. Utah 4-5 22-34 165-178 0.422
28. Golden State 5-3 18-28 151-144 0.431
27. LA Lakers 3-4 18-27 137-129 0.438
26. Sacramento 3-5 22-28 139-158 0.449

The 5 weakest schedules in the league all belong to Western Conference teams, some of which could be in for a long season. These teams have already played total of 9 games (winning 7) against Eastern Conference cellar dwellers New York, Toronto, and Atlanta. I can't remember the last time the Warriors had a winning record this "late" in the season, but when you consider the fact that only one of their opponents so far has a winning record, it's hard to get too excited.


I heard former NBA coach Tom Nissalke say on the radio today that he can't remember a time when the Utah Jazz have started with this tough of a schedule. Looks like the stats don't support his argument. Maybe he was referring to the fact that 7 of the first 10 Jazz games were on the road. Is there any way to factor in home/road games into the equation?


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